Serious sports bettors often dismiss futures wagers as sucker bets targeted at 'squares' looking for a big payoff. For example, a typical futures 'sucker bet' would be something like betting that Harvard will win the NCAA basketball tournament at 500/1 odds. Sure, the potential payback is huge but here's the problem--the "true odds" of Harvard winning the NCAA hoops tournament are astronomical, and certainly well in excess of 500/1. That means that from the outset this bet represents a poor wagering value.
Of more practical concern to the serious sports bettor is the necessity of tying up a portion of your wagering bankroll for a long period of time. Additionally, once you've placed a futures bet the outcome is still subject to the typical areas of concern for sports handicappers--injuries, trades, coaching changes, etc. It's hard enough to stay on top of these variables on a day-to-day basis, and predicting them over the full season is downright impossible.
So futures plays have no relevance to a serious approach to sports handicapping? Not necessarily. It's crucial to think of the sports betting discipline in terms of value. Used properly, futures wagers are frequently a good way of maximizing line value and finding overlay situations. Here are some ways in which future wagers can be successfully leveraged.
Futures can present an opportunity to 'earn' a greater value on certain bets. For example, it has become common for sports books to take action on entertainment events like the Academy Awards. By paying close attention to Hollywood gossip and entertainment news, a bettor can actually have a better take on these outcomes than the bookmaker.
Some books even take bets on the major awards like 'Best Picture' and 'Best Director' before the nominations are actually announced. In this situation, a bettor who can read the 'buzz' on which films will be nominated can find substantially better values before the nominations are announced.
The nature of the film industry makes using a future wager in this manner very attractive. The release schedule of films is established in advance and is publicly known. The cut off date for award consideration is the end of the calendar year, so nothing can pop up and become a surprise after that. Of the hundreds of films that are released each year only a handful are legit Oscar contenders and with some work its easy to narrow those down further. After that its just a matter of finding the value.
It's also possible to leverage value in the 'stick and ball' sports with future wagers. There are obviously more variables in sports than in the entertainment industry and the top teams are never going to be found 'under the radar'. For example, you can already bet that the Patriots will win the 2010 Superbowl but you'll be hard pressed to find a value price on such a popular team with the general public.
To use future bets effectively in this manner, you need to dig a little deeper. For example, before the NHL All Star break you could have bet on the Carolina Hurricanes to win the 2009 Stanley Cup at prices as high as 25/1 or 30/1. Now, they're in the Eastern Conference Finals and priced as low as 5/1.
This play wasnt based on any sort of certainty that this team would win the Stanley Cup, but rather on the value they presented. In other words, the true odds of this dark horse Cup win is more in the range of the current price so the 40/1 is a clear overlay. Once the playoffs begin, this sort of positional play offers a lot of options to hedge and to lock in a profit.
Dont forget the field. Many bettors dismiss plays on the field in a futures wager out of hand, thinking that the wager represents all of the entrants not good enough to justify an individual price. If you pay attention, however, you can frequently use a field wager to your advantage. Shortly after Dale Earnhardts tragic death at the 2001 Daytona 500 I found a sportsbook that was offering a field wager on the NASCAR rookie of the year award at 15/1. Richard Childress Racing hadnt officially announced Harvick as the fulltime replacement for Earnhardt, but the word on the streets strongly suggested that would be the case. I knew that Harvick was a talented young driver (he was the 2000 Busch Series rookie of the year), but the unique situation with a rookie driving for one of the best financed and most experienced teams in the sport was too good to pass up. I made the bet on Harvick at just the right time, since after he was announced as the replacement for Earnhardt the line dropped to 5/1. After he won his first race (in his third race) the line dropped to 2/1 and by mid season the field was a -250 chalk.
This is obviously a best case example, but there have been similar circumstances that were still good value plays but didnt work out perfectly like the Harvick situation. Several years ago it wasnt uncommon to find a field bet on NASCAR road races that allowed you to bet several of the road course specialists like Ron Fellows, Boris Said and Scott Pruett with one bet. You wont be able to take advantage of the field bet often, but if you keep your eyes open and think out of the box it can be very profitable when it does occur.
Don't forget to shop around for the best wagering value. This is true with any sports bet, but particularly so with futures wagers as the prices you find will vary much more than a typical pointspread. A little bit of effort can easily reveal a more advantageous price, meaning greater line value. - 30229
Of more practical concern to the serious sports bettor is the necessity of tying up a portion of your wagering bankroll for a long period of time. Additionally, once you've placed a futures bet the outcome is still subject to the typical areas of concern for sports handicappers--injuries, trades, coaching changes, etc. It's hard enough to stay on top of these variables on a day-to-day basis, and predicting them over the full season is downright impossible.
So futures plays have no relevance to a serious approach to sports handicapping? Not necessarily. It's crucial to think of the sports betting discipline in terms of value. Used properly, futures wagers are frequently a good way of maximizing line value and finding overlay situations. Here are some ways in which future wagers can be successfully leveraged.
Futures can present an opportunity to 'earn' a greater value on certain bets. For example, it has become common for sports books to take action on entertainment events like the Academy Awards. By paying close attention to Hollywood gossip and entertainment news, a bettor can actually have a better take on these outcomes than the bookmaker.
Some books even take bets on the major awards like 'Best Picture' and 'Best Director' before the nominations are actually announced. In this situation, a bettor who can read the 'buzz' on which films will be nominated can find substantially better values before the nominations are announced.
The nature of the film industry makes using a future wager in this manner very attractive. The release schedule of films is established in advance and is publicly known. The cut off date for award consideration is the end of the calendar year, so nothing can pop up and become a surprise after that. Of the hundreds of films that are released each year only a handful are legit Oscar contenders and with some work its easy to narrow those down further. After that its just a matter of finding the value.
It's also possible to leverage value in the 'stick and ball' sports with future wagers. There are obviously more variables in sports than in the entertainment industry and the top teams are never going to be found 'under the radar'. For example, you can already bet that the Patriots will win the 2010 Superbowl but you'll be hard pressed to find a value price on such a popular team with the general public.
To use future bets effectively in this manner, you need to dig a little deeper. For example, before the NHL All Star break you could have bet on the Carolina Hurricanes to win the 2009 Stanley Cup at prices as high as 25/1 or 30/1. Now, they're in the Eastern Conference Finals and priced as low as 5/1.
This play wasnt based on any sort of certainty that this team would win the Stanley Cup, but rather on the value they presented. In other words, the true odds of this dark horse Cup win is more in the range of the current price so the 40/1 is a clear overlay. Once the playoffs begin, this sort of positional play offers a lot of options to hedge and to lock in a profit.
Dont forget the field. Many bettors dismiss plays on the field in a futures wager out of hand, thinking that the wager represents all of the entrants not good enough to justify an individual price. If you pay attention, however, you can frequently use a field wager to your advantage. Shortly after Dale Earnhardts tragic death at the 2001 Daytona 500 I found a sportsbook that was offering a field wager on the NASCAR rookie of the year award at 15/1. Richard Childress Racing hadnt officially announced Harvick as the fulltime replacement for Earnhardt, but the word on the streets strongly suggested that would be the case. I knew that Harvick was a talented young driver (he was the 2000 Busch Series rookie of the year), but the unique situation with a rookie driving for one of the best financed and most experienced teams in the sport was too good to pass up. I made the bet on Harvick at just the right time, since after he was announced as the replacement for Earnhardt the line dropped to 5/1. After he won his first race (in his third race) the line dropped to 2/1 and by mid season the field was a -250 chalk.
This is obviously a best case example, but there have been similar circumstances that were still good value plays but didnt work out perfectly like the Harvick situation. Several years ago it wasnt uncommon to find a field bet on NASCAR road races that allowed you to bet several of the road course specialists like Ron Fellows, Boris Said and Scott Pruett with one bet. You wont be able to take advantage of the field bet often, but if you keep your eyes open and think out of the box it can be very profitable when it does occur.
Don't forget to shop around for the best wagering value. This is true with any sports bet, but particularly so with futures wagers as the prices you find will vary much more than a typical pointspread. A little bit of effort can easily reveal a more advantageous price, meaning greater line value. - 30229
About the Author:
Ross Everett is a freelance writer and a noted authority on sports betting and NFL football betting lines. He is a frequent sports radio guest where he gives advice on how to successfully bet on NFL. He lives in Las Vegas with three dogs and a lynx.
